Washington State’s Smallest Ferry: the M/V Sanpoil, aka the Keller Ferry
Photo courtesy of WSDOT

Happy New (Fiscal) Year!  The state’s fiscal year begins each July 1st. Hopefully you celebrated accordingly. 😊

Washington State Fun Fact

To honor the spirit of summer, here’s a fun fact about our state! Brownie points to any readers who take advantage of this knowledge and send us a pic sometime this summer; we’ll even feature it in a future edition of Notes (if desired)!

In terms of fleet number and ridership, Washington State Ferries is the largest public ferry operator in the country and provides transportation to many of the state’s beautiful islands.

Updated Caseload Forecast Released

On June 13, the Washington State Caseload Forecast Council released updated forecasts for various entitlement programs ranging from K-12 education to prisons to Medicaid. These forecasts inform budget appropriations by previewing expected demands for specific programs. (Summary document and Narrative document for specific details).

In the early learning space, three key programs are forecasted and showed the following projected changes from the most recent February forecast:

ECEAP: The Caseload Forecast Council reports that ECEAP caseload has increased since the low point of the 2020-21 school year during the pandemic.

As in earlier forecasts, most of the ECEAP enrollment growth has come from children who do not meet eligibility under the current criteria. As of March 2024, of the increased enrollment, 343 children met current ECEAP eligibility criteria (3% below March 2023 levels) while 1,065 children did not meet entitlement eligibility criteria (49.9% above March 2023 levels).

As directed in the Fair Start for Kids Act, ECEAP is scheduled to become an entitlement as of July 1, 2026, and income eligibility for the program is scheduled to increase from 110% of the Federal Poverty Level to 36% State Median Income (which is roughly 140% of the Federal Poverty Level). The forecast reflects the projected impacts of these increases.

Actual ECEAP caseloads as compared to the forecast could vary as the forecast assumes substantial caseload growth once the program becomes an entitlement and limited data exists about uptake rates. There could also be variance from the forecast as children included in the forecast for ECEAP participation could opt for participation in other early learning program options.

Transition to Kindergarten: The Caseload Forecast Council narrative notes that during the 2023-24 school year, 144 school districts offered Transitional Kindergarten/Transition to Kindergarten (TK/TTK) in 288 schools. Based on information provided by districts, that number is expected to grow to 161 districts offering TTK in 371 schools in the 2024-25 school year.

While initial growth in TTK was largely centered in rural and smaller school districts, the program is expanding to larger ones, including the Renton and Tacoma school districts in the upcoming school year.

Because this is an emerging program, actual enrollment in TTK could vary from the forecast as districts could opt in or opt out of operating the program.

Working Connections Child Care: In its June forecast, the Forecast Council aimed to account for recently enacted legislation that expanded eligibility for Working Connections Child Care and also for the increased income eligibility (up to 75% of the State Median Income) slated to go into effect on July 1, 2025 per the Fair Start for Kids Act.The risk of variance to this forecast is moderate to high, particularly if participation in the program varies widely from the forecast assumptions once the program’s income eligibility is expanded.

The Caseload Forecast Council is next scheduled to meet on November 13th. This forecast will inform Governor Inslee’s final budget that will be released in December.

Washington Research Council Caseload Forecast Summary Highlights Fair Start for Kids Act: The Washington Research Council, a nonprofit organization that provides economic research and policy analysis, found implementation of aspects of the Fair Start for Kids Act during the 2025-27 biennium as its biggest take-away from the June Forecast Council report and highlighted the implications in its caseload forecast analysis.

In a blog post, the Research Council describes the portions of the Fair Start for Kids Act of 2021 that are slated to go into effect during the upcoming 2025-27 biennium that are reflected in the caseload forecast (e.g. increased income eligibility for Working Connections Child Care and ECEAP entitlement). It is an accurate synopsis and provides an outside look at how other sectors are assessing early learning’s impact on the overall state budget.

Revenue Forecast

On June 26, the Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council met to receive an updated Revenue Forecast from state Economist Dave Reich.

The bottom line is the state’s projected available revenues subject to the four-year budget outlook for the 2023-27 biennia are down by $666 million (or down by 0.5%) from the February forecast. This represents a decrease of $477 million in the current 2023-25 biennium and a decrease of $189 million for the upcoming 2025-27 biennium.

The Education Legacy Trust Account (which is funded in part by capital gains revenue and represents one source of funding for early learning) saw a reduction in projected revenues from the February forecast, largely due to lower projected capital gains receipts. Specifically, the forecast presumes a reduction of $188 million for the 2023-25 biennium and a reduction of $119 million for the 2025-27 biennium.

When asked about the lower capital gains receipts, Economist Reich responded with his opinion that this lower number likely more accurately reflects taxpayer behavior and, going forward, he expects capital gains receipts to be forecasted at $430 million a year. Note: this would mean that, per statute, the Common Schools Construction Account would not receive any capital gains funding as it would only receive funding if capital gain revenues exceed $500 million a year.

When questioned by reporters, Office of Financial Management Director David Schumacher and Democratic budget writers emphasized that the Legislature left healthy reserves and ending fund balances. They also noted this revenue forecast reflects a point in time and additional information will be available as the year goes on – including the outcome of the November initiatives impacting the continued availability of Capital Gains and Climate Commitment Act funding.

The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council will receive two more Revenue Forecasts in 2024 – one on September 27th and a second on November 20th, with the November forecast informing Governor Inslee’s final budget.

State Agency Budget Instructions and OFM Leadership Transition

On June 3rd, the Office of Financial Management (OFM) Director David Schumacher released instructions to guide state agencies in preparation of operating, capital and transportation budget requests (or “Decision Packages”) which are due to OFM by September 10th.

Notably, the instructions open by recognizing more people will need state services in the upcoming biennium, leading to increased costs for providing them. At the same time, available revenues will most likely only “… support the maintenance of current programs, but not growth.”

The instructions direct state agencies to focus on continuation of current programs and anticipated caseload growth. They go on to say that “agencies should also consider potentially pausing the phase-in of new programs, and the creation of new programs should be limited to only the highest priorities.” Of course, the outcome of the November ballot initiatives could impact the availability of revenue and agencies should consider the potential of reduced revenues resulting from the passage of initiatives in their budget requests.

As noted in the instruction letter, agency budget requests are due to OFM by September 10th and will be public shortly thereafter. The Governor and OFM will use this information (along with updated caseload and revenue forecast numbers) to build Governor Inslee’s final budgets that will be released in mid-late December. It will be interesting to see how state agencies interpret these instructions.

OFM Leadership Transition: It should also be noted that Schumacher, who has served as OFM Director for 12 years, recently announced he will be leaving his role this fall to serve as the Public Affairs Director for the Washington State Investment Board. As we get closer to the conclusion of Governor Inslee’s tenure, we can expect to see the departure of other senior members of his team.

Reminder: August Primary Election is Coming!

Don’t forget to vote! The upcoming Primary Election is on Tuesday, August 6 and ballots must be received by 8pm to be counted. Register to vote on the Secretary of State’s website.

Happy Sunny Interim from the Capitol Building! (Photo Credit: Erica Hallock)

Notes to the Reader: Start Early Washington publishes “Notes from Olympia” intermittently during the legislative interim.

Thanks to those who responded to our survey about this publication. You all provided excellent feedback and suggestions on ways to improve the product. Several folks mentioned incorporating video content, an intriguing idea that may push us out of our comfort zone, but we are game to give it a whirl!

And in case you were waiting with bated breath… 60.6% of the Notes readers who responded favor the Razor Clam for the official Washington State clam. Sorry geoduck fans!

What We Are Watching…

The State’s Revenue Picture

In the past few weeks, several economic indicators have been released that, collectively, signal potential concerns around the state’s fiscal outlook. These include:

1. Reduced Capital Gains Revenues – In late May, the Department of Revenue reported a drop in Capital Gains collections for Tax Years 2022 and 2023. (Check out the Washington State Standard article more in-depth coverage).As of May 17, 2024, $433 million in Capital Gains taxes have been collected for Tax Year 2023, significantly less than the $673 million projected in the February revenue forecast. Capital Gains payments are due by April 15th annually, but filers can request an extension. This collection amount could increase with late payments.Further, the Department of Revenue reported that with additional late payments and refunds, actual collections for Tax Year 2022 for Capital Gains were $786 million, not the assumed $896 million.We can expect these updated figures to be factored into the June revenue forecast (discussed below).As a reminder, the first $500 million collected in Capital Gains annually is deposited into the Education Legacy Trust Account. The Education Legacy Trust Account is used to support early learning, common schools (aka K-12 education) and higher education. Any amount collected above $500 million annually is deposited into the Common Schools Construction Account. This means the drop in Tax Year 2022 revenue impacts the amount of funding available for the Commons Schools Construction Account and, if the payments for Tax Year 2023 remain under $500 million, this will impact deposits into the Education Legacy Trust Account and budget writers will have to make necessary adjustments. More to come on this as we learn more.
2. Drop in Estimated Reserves in Four-Year Budget Outlook – Washington state law requires the Legislature to adopt a four-year balanced budget that leaves a positive ending fund balance in the general fund and other related funds.On April 25, the Washington state Economic and Revenue Forecast Council adopted its official budget outlook to reflect investments included in the 2024 Supplemental Budget. While the adopted Supplemental Budget balances over four-years, the ending balance for funds subject to the Outlook at the end of the 2025-27 biennium is now $100M. This is $410M lower than the ending balance of $510M included in the estimated Outlook presented to lawmakers alongside the compromise budget in March (aka the conference report).A major reason for this downward adjustment is due to a change in assumptions about “reversions.” Reversions are appropriations that do not end up being spent and “revert” to the state and can then be reappropriated. For reversions, the adopted Outlook assumes 0.8% of appropriations for State Fiscal Year (SFY) 2024, lowering to 0.5% in SFYs 2025-27. In layman’s terms, this means less funding is assumed to “come back” to the state to be invested for other purposes. Specifically, the Outlook assumes $284M of reversions in SFY 2024, $199M in SFY 2025, $189M in SFY 2026 and $194M in SFY 2027.
3. Revenue Collections Come in Lower than Forecasted for April 11-May 10 – The state’s Economic and Revenue Council’s May Economic and Revenue Update showed revenue collections for April 11 – May 10 came in $114M (4.6%) lower than forecasted. This report comes after April’s update which showed a $82.9M surplus.Cumulatively, revenue collections are down $60.6M from the forecast (1%).
4. Revenue and Caseload Forecasts Out in June – Updated Caseload and Revenue forecasts will be released in June (June 13 and 26, respectively). These forecasts will provide important data points that will inform the state’s budget plans for the 2025-27 and 2027-29 biennia (remember that four-year balanced budget requirement).The caseload forecast will provide a snapshot of expected enrollment in entitlement programs that drive state investments such as K-12, Medicaid and prisons. For early childhood, Working Connections, ECEAP, ESIT and Transition to Kindergarten are all included in the caseload forecast. In short, the caseload forecast provides insight into expected state investments.The revenue forecast will provide an update on anticipated state revenue. These forecasts consider state, national and international factors that impact the economy from construction activity in the Puget Sound to the war in Ukraine. As noted above, we can expect adjustments related to Capital Gains payments.

What’s Coming Up in the 2025-27 Biennium for Early Learning?

State agencies are busy preparing budget requests (or “Decision Packages”) to the Governor’s Office of Financial Management (OFM) to inform Governor Inslee’s final budget that will be released in late December.
Importantly, OFM will be releasing instructions to state agencies sometime in June to guide their budget preparation process. The state’s revenue picture and upcoming change in gubernatorial administration could influence these budget instructions. For example, OFM could direct state agencies to limit budget requests to what expansions or policy changes are included in statute. As a reminder, Governors must release balanced budgets.

These budget requests are due to the Office of Financial Management around mid-September annually.

The Fair Start for Kids Act of 2021 dictated in statute a number of expansions to both Working Connections Child Care and ECEAP during the 2025-27 biennium. As a reminder, these expansions and policy changes include:

1. Expanded eligibility for Working Connections Child Care up to 75% of the State Median Income (SMI) as of July 1, 2025. The latest data shows this income equates to $6,386 a month for a family of three.
2. Establishment of a $215 a month co-payment for Working Connections Child Care for families between 60% – 75% SMI as of July 1, 2025. This aligns with the expanded eligibility.
3. By the 2026-27 school year, any eligible child shall be entitled to enroll in ECEAP.
4. DCYF to submit an implementation plan to expand access to the state’s mixed delivery child care system by June 30, 2025. The plan must assume that any financial contribution by families is capped at no more than seven percent of household income and that the child care workforce is provided living wages and benefits. This is also known as the Early Childhood Education (ECE) Access and Living Wage Implementation Plan.

Because these policies are all included in statute, DCYF is preparing to submit Decision Packages to outline expected costs. DCYF will also be considering other funding requests, but we can expect the agency to prioritize these statutorily required items.

It is important to remember that policies embedded in statute signal a legislative commitment to fund a policy. Should the Legislature opt not to fund – or fund a policy at a different amount – than what is included in statute, they must take a direct action to change their previous decision. Conversely, items listed in statute as “subject to appropriation,” can simply not be funded without any further action by the Legislature.

Candidate Filing Week, By the Numbers

The 2024 primary and general elections are shaping up to be some of the most competitive and interesting in recent memory. With open seats from Governor through counties and cities, hundreds of Washingtonians opted to run for public office during the May 6-10 “Candidate Filing Week.” Check out the Secretary of State’s website for an official listing of the offices and candidates.

We thought we would use numbers to convey some themes and stories that jumped out to us from filing week. (Note this is not intended to be all-inclusive).

3: Three people named Bob Fergusons initially filed to run for Governor. Ultimately, two of the “Bob Fergusons” withdrew, leaving the state’s current Attorney General as the only “Bob Ferguson” in the race.

This situation helped us learn about a 1943 law that makes it a felony to run for office against someone with the same name with the goal of confusing the voters. Check out the Washington State Standard’s coverage of the issue.

4: Four incumbent Senators are running unopposed.

19: The number of House members who are running unopposed.

8: The number of current House members who are running for open Senate seats.

6: Candidates filed to run for the open Senate seat in the 4th Legislative District (LD). A total of 5 Republicans (including current House member Rep. Leonard Christian) and one Democrat. The most crowded Senate race.

6 is also the magic number for the open House position 2 seat in the 4th LD. In this race, four Republicans and two Democrats are running. After two candidates withdrew from the House position 1 seat in the 5th LD, this race in the 4th became the most crowded House race.

1: One candidate is running for the open 3rd LD Senate seat currently occupied by departing Senate Majority Leader Andy Billig. Current Representative Marcus Riccelli is running unopposed for this seat after the individual who filed to run against Riccelli withdrew their candidacy.

1: One former House member is running for the House in a different legislative district than he originally served (former Representative Mark Hargrove from the 47th LD filed to run for the House 5th LD Position 1).

16: Sixteen current legislators drew opponents from their same party.
2 of these current legislators are running for the Senate (one Republican and one Democrat).

The remaining 14 legislators are all running for re-election in the House. Of these, 9 are Democrats and 5 are Republicans.

As a reminder, Washington state operates a “top-two” primary system, where the two candidates receiving the most votes advance to the general election. Learn more at the Secretary of State’s webpage.

Washington’s primary election is on August 6, 2024.

Check out Washington’s online voter registration portal!

Our Policy and Advocacy Shop is Hiring!

Our Policy and Advocacy Team is looking to turn our duo into a trio! We’re in search of someone to assist our efforts of bolstering early learning in our great state. If you know anyone who is passionate about Washington State, its families and providers, and is interested in learning about the legislative process, please refer them to our Policy and Advocacy Associate position. In addition, Start Early Washington is hiring a Senior Communications and Development Associate to drive external awareness and engagement with potential supporters and people working in early childhood and related fields. We look forward to reviewing applications!

Capitol Campus Construction Update

The Joel M. Pritchard Library – the latest building on the Capital Campus under construction (Photo Credit: Erica Hallock)

A late May visit to the Capitol not only allowed for viewing of gorgeous flowers blooming throughout the campus, but also an update on the significant construction underway. Since Sine Die, there has been significant progress made on the Newhouse Building (which we will cover in a future Notes) and construction has also started on the Joel M. Pritchard library upgrade.

The parking lot used by legislators and staff is now dedicated to construction vehicles and – while hard to tell by the pictures – the large windows framing the building’s entrance are being removed. Deconstruction of the current building is scheduled to be completed by October 2024 with construction of the new building starting in June 2025, with substantial completion expected by June 2026.

What does this mean for the 2025 legislative session?

With the Pritchard building closed, there will be very limited space for the public to gather and eat between meetings, particularly on rainy days. Expect more crowding in the Legislative Building, especially on big advocacy days.

Per the Department of Enterprise Services’ website, the renderings for the new Pritchard building look to be quite the upgrade:

Department of Enterprise Services

Looking for Bright Spots

What are some of the biggest things you’ve learned in supporting infant and maternal mental health?

Becca: I have been really impressed by the leaders that we have encountered in Washington State and across the United States. We all know there are not enough resources in the ecosystem to support families. We also know there is not enough support for the work that infant and maternal mental health leaders are doing. Yet so many leaders are willing to step forward with partners and make things happen. For example, Perinatal Support Washington and Start Early partnered to provide home visitors with Maternal Mental Health training. That partnership has created new mental health resources for the workforce and for families.

Kim: Because early childhood and parent mental health is so under-resourced, there are opportunities for progress in many kinds of systems. That is helpful because as we seek to fund systems change, we can remember we don’t have the answers. We can’t foresee which groups of stakeholders, in which systems, are going to rise to the occasion because they care deeply about the bond between caregivers and a child, and they see how important that is to their work.

In Tennessee we see leadership from community behavioral health, in California we see innovation led by pediatricians and community health workers, and in New Jersey there are doulas growing access to maternal mental health care. These examples are the tip of the iceberg. The diversity of ways to make progress is both a lesson learned as well as an approach we can continue to support.

Creating a Movement

(Start Early) Are you finding new champions for infant and maternal mental health emerging since Perigee began in 2018?

Becca: We have learned that there are champions everywhere. I think our mission calls us to learn about opportunities to help everyone see the importance of child and family wellbeing and valuing the earliest relationships. Particularly where there are instances of trauma in a family’s experience, either now or intergenerationally.

Whether it’s guaranteed basic income or child welfare, there are people in tune with needs and opportunities, and there are people who are curious and want to learn more. By gathering people together, getting to know one another, and talking about the issues, you can see the places where the family economic security goals and the mental health goals can come together and be in alignment.

As a former preschool teacher, Adrienne Matthias, Start Early Washington Home Visiting Training Manager has always believed in the power of early connections with families. While teaching in Korea in her twenties, she recognized that the most powerful way to reach children was through the parents and caregivers who really had the strongest relationship with them. This awareness of the opportunities to create healthy relationships early on is what eventually led her to home visiting.

Planting the Seeds for Early Intervention

Back in the U.S. teaching preschool, the idea of connecting with families as early as possible became more important to Adrienne, strengthening her view that all parents need support during those first critical years of a child’s life. This led Adrienne to training as a home visitor, because as she sees it, home visiting provides an important resource, partnering with parents in ways that differ from a traditional classroom setting. Home visitors can support parents, building their confidence and providing tools and emotional support during the critical early days of parenting.

We asked Michael Gouterman, our mental health expert, why prioritizing parental mental health is essential for nurturing a healthy environment for children to thrive.

• Understanding the Impact
  Parents are their children’s first teachers, and it is the quality of parent-child relationships and interactions that create the foundational skills that children need to be successful in school and in life. When parents experience mental health challenges, it can have ripple effects on their children’s development.
• The Dysregulated World
  Imagine a child born into a world where their caregivers are grappling with their own dysregulation—an environment marked by stress, anxiety or depression. In such circumstances, the ability of caregivers to provide consistent emotional support and regulation may be compromised, impacting the child’s sense of safety and security. Read our tackling tough topics posts on: Racism and Violence
• The Transmission of Stress
  Stress has a way of affecting parent-child relationships and impacting the way children may perceive the world. When parents struggle with their mental health, children may internalize this stress, leading to challenges in emotional regulation and social and emotional development.
• Empowering Parents as Advocates
  Recognizing the importance of parental mental health is not about assigning blame, but rather acknowledging the complex interplay between individual well-being and environmental factors. Empowering parents to advocate for their own mental health is paramount, ensuring they have access to resources and support systems to address their needs.
• Breaking the Cycle
  When we prioritize parental mental health, we can break the cycle of the intergenerational transmission of stress and help create an environment where children can thrive. When parents prioritize their own well-being, and are better equipped to provide the support and stability their children need to navigate life’s challenges.

Helpful Mental Health Resources for Parents

• Mental Health Resources for Parents and Caregivers – Administration for Children and Families
• Parenting while coping with depression
• Resilience topic landing page and resources – American Psychological Association
• Taking care of ourselves – Activities for parents (English)
• Taking care of ourselves – Activities for parents (Spanish)
• Checking your employee benefits for Employee Assistance Programs, which typically include mental health support.

Mindfulness Tips:

• Check your employee benefits for subscriptions to paid mindfulness and meditation services, such as Calm or Chill Anywhere.
• Search your phone’s app store for apps that offer free services.
• Youtube is a great resource for finding free mindfulness and/or meditation sessions of any length.

Here are some simple yet powerful activities that can cultivate positive mental health experiences:

• Establishing Rituals and Routines
  Rituals and routines provide a sense of predictability and stability for young children, helping them feel safe and secure in their environment. Consider incorporating the following rituals and routines into your daily life:
  • Morning and bedtime routines: Establish consistent rituals for waking up and going to bed, such as reading a bedtime story or sharing highlights from the day.
  • Mealtime rituals: Create special traditions around mealtime, such as setting the table together or sharing a favorite family recipe.
  • Transition rituals: Develop rituals for transitions, such as saying goodbye before leaving for school or welcoming your child home after a day apart. ​Don’t be afraid to be creative and make your own unique rituals as a family.

By consistently practicing these rituals and routines, you can instill a sense of familiarity and connection in your child’s daily life, promoting a feeling of safety and predictability.

• Exploring New Experiences
  While routines provide a sense of security, it’s also important to expose children to new experiences and challenges to support their growth and development. Here are some ways to encourage exploration and curiosity:
  • Visit new places: Take your child on outings to explore new environments, such as parks, museums or community events. There are many opportunities each month to gain free access to many of the popular museums and attractions throughout the Chicagoland area.
  • Try new activities: Encourage your child to try new hobbies or activities that spark their interest, whether it’s painting, dancing or playing a musical instrument.
  • Embrace nature: Spend time outdoors exploring nature together, whether it’s going for a hike, collecting and sorting leaves or playing in the backyard.

By introducing new experiences in a supportive and encouraging environment, you can help your child develop confidence, resilience and a sense of curiosity about the world around them.

• Cultivating Connection
  Building strong connections with caregivers, family members and peers is essential for promoting positive mental health in early childhood. Here are some ways to foster meaningful connections:
  • Quality time: Set aside dedicated time each day to spend one-on-one with your child, engaging in activities they enjoy and showing genuine interest in their thoughts and feelings. Even for the busiest of schedules, dedicating a small amount time together can have a tremendous impact.
  • Family traditions: Create special traditions and rituals that bring your family together, such as movie nights, game nights or weekend outings.
  • Social interactions: Encourage your child to interact with peers through playdates, preschool or community groups, providing opportunities for friendship and social development.

What is mental health?

At its core, mental health encompasses social, emotional, and psychological well-being. It’s about how we think, feel, and behave, and how we navigate the world around us.

Providing safe environments for children, where they can build relationships and connections with their caregivers and loved ones, has a positive impact on their mental health. These early interactions lay the groundwork for a child to learn and feel a sense of safety and security in the world.

In these safe and nurturing environments, children begin to develop what psychologists refer to as a secure attachment which Influences how children relate to others throughout their lives.

Why is mental health important in early childhood development?

At Start Early, we know that the foundation of a child’s social and emotional competence begins forming in the prenatal relationship and continues to be laid the very first days, months, and years of life, shaped by the interactions babies have with their parents and other caring adults. Babies thrive when they are securely attached to someone special—their mother, father or other primary caregiver—who knows and responds consistently and reliably to their needs.

Mental health is a lifelong journey that is shaped by our experiences, relationships and environments. We know from research that quality programs for infants, toddlers and their families can make a significant impact on their lives, a difference that can last a lifetime.

As we embark on this journey of exploration and understanding, let’s remember that mental health is not a destination but a continuum. By nurturing our own mental well-being and supporting those around us, we have the opportunity to build a stronger world for everyone to thrive as their best selves.